At first glance, it would seem that Sen. Becky Lourey's DFL primary election challenge hurts Attorney General Mike Hatch's chances to beat Republican Gov. Tim Pawlenty.
After all, a fight within the party is bound to drain resources from the Hatch gubernatorial campaign. And if the two candidates are fighting each other, Hatch would not be able to fully concentrate on beating Pawlenty. As one DFL State Convention delegate said about primaries: "One candidate is always better than two."
However, if the primary race plays out as it appears it will, that may not be the case this time. The morning after Lourey lost the party's endorsement for governor, she stepped inside a corridor of the Mayo Civic Center in Rochester, but outside the convention itself, and talked to reporters. The press corps repeatedly asked what she was going to say about Hatch. Reporters time and again asked how she would differentiate herself from Hatch, the pit bull two-term attorney general.
At every turn, Lourey refused to even talk about Hatch. She insisted that she is running in the primary to draw attention to the issues.
Maybe Lourey does not expect to win the primary, but would consider herself successful as long as she forces discussion of issues dear to her.
ADVERTISEMENT
If Hatch does the same thing - talks about issues while ignoring Lourey - the primary campaign actually could help him.
If Lourey can attract attention with her campaign, reporters will feel obligated to contact Hatch for his reaction. It will be like double dipping because reporters also will want to get Hatch's reaction to many things Pawlenty does. If nothing else, Lourey is ensuring that Hatch will get more publicity than if he had no serious challenger.
At the same time, a primary challenge will keep more DFL Party voters involved in politics.
Lourey's strongest supporters are diehard Democrats and will vote Nov. 7 regardless of how she does in the primary. But without the primary race, some DFLers would lose interest and might not vote Nov. 7. Lourey supporters have little choice other than to back Hatch if he wins the Sept. 12 primary. Most realize that even though Green Party governor candidate Ken Pentel may match many of their beliefs, he has little chance to win.
The other DFL primary contest, for US Senate, may be a bit different. Challenger Ford Bell is talking directly about front-runner and party-endorsed candidate Amy Klobuchar. For instance, he says she has shown no leadership against the war in Iraq. Klobuchar appears to have ignored Bell so far, and probably will try to continue to do so. However, Bell is persistent enough that she may not be able to ignore him forever.
While Bell produces polls that say he could beat Republican US Rep. Mark Kennedy, most in the know think he has little chance of winning a Senate race that will be among the most closely watched and expensive in the country.
Attacking Klobuchar head-on, Bell could divert the endorsed candidate's attention away from Kennedy. Thus, the Bell campaign could hurt DFL chances by giving Kennedy a free pass while Klobuchar is campaigning against Bell.
It is hard to see at this early stage how Bell and Lourey could pull off primary upsets. Lourey was losing votes fast at the recent DFL state convention, almost falling to 20 percent support by the time she dropped out. If she can't get enough votes from liberal convention delegates for her liberal campaign and if Bell can't even get enough support to seek the endorsement, the two challengers' futures look shaky at best.
ADVERTISEMENT
Still, a primary election certainly can produce surprises and Lourey and Bell could win if they play their cards right.
DON DAVIS, CAPITOL CORRESPONDENT
