WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump’s net approval has declined sharply in the Dakotas and Minnesota, according to new national polling data.
The latest results from Morning Consult’s ongoing presidential tracker shows Trump’s net support — how many people approve of the job he’s done in office — has decreased by 18 percentage points in North Dakota since he took office. In Minnesota, Trump’s rating decreased by 17 points. He’s down 11 points in South Dakota since his inauguration, according to July’s survey results.
Trump still maintains more than 50% approval of eligible voters in both the Dakotas, and his staunchest supporters say they’re not worried.
“The chances of Trump not winning (in South Dakota) right now are zero,” said Neal Tapio, former state legislator and chairman of Trump’s campaign in South Dakota.
What’s increased between when Trump took office in January 2017 and July 2019 is the number of eligible voters who say, now 30 months into his presidency, that Trump is not doing a good job in the Dakotas. That number has spiked from 33% to 46% in North Dakota and 33% to 43% in South Dakota. Morning Consult says it has been surveying 5,000 eligible voters monthly since January 2017. No raw numbers of Dakota or Minnesota voters is provided, but the margin-of-error for each state hovers between 2% and 3%.
“It’s really hard to figure out from one single poll what’s going on,” said University of North Dakota political scientist Mark Jendrysik. “You catch a few disgruntled people, maybe someone who is venting, and that has a large net effect on numbers.”
Trade wars and a logjam on immigration reform are impacting voters’ views of the president, who rode a populist wave into office, said Rep. Ryan Winkler, the DFL Majority Leader in the Minnesota House.
“Everyone knows him (now) and formed a basic opinion about his character,” said Winkler, who represents the western Twin Cities suburbs of Golden Valley, Plymouth and St. Louis Park. “People are getting tired of the Trump show.”
Polling organization FiveThirtyEight gives Morning Consult, a D.C.-based market research company, a “B-” for its accuracy over time. In 2016, Morning Consult inaccurately predicted Hillary Clinton would win the presidential vote by 3% — though they accurately projected her share of the popular vote.