A storm system continued its march toward the Northern Plains on Monday, threatening to aggravate the Red River Valley's flood situation, as runoff forced road closures in Wilkin County, Minn.
The storm is still several days away, and it's too early to tell exactly where it will go or how much rain or snow it may dump on the valley, said Mark Ewens, data manager at the National Weather Service in Grand Forks, N.D.
However, models indicate it will spread into the Northern Plains by late this weekend or early next week, "and it's of enough confidence level on our part that we feel we better start letting people know about it," he said.
More cause for concern: The long-range outlook through the end of March calls for above-normal temperatures and precipitation as a large trough of low pressure forms on the West Coast and sends a series of storms to the Plains, Ewens said.
"Unfortunately, the pattern is changing at the wrong time for us as we get into the flood season," he said.
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The season was in full swing Monday in Wilkin County, where overland flooding blocked several roads, said County Engineer Tom Richels. Water flowed in the fields rather than in the ditches, which were still choked with snow and ice, he said.
"If it was in the ditches, we could control it, and the water gets regulated by the culverts and that," he said. "But when it's out in the fields, there isn't a whole lot we can do with it."
The worst flooding is in the northeast corner of the county, where the terrain is hilly and water flows faster, quickly eating through the snow, he said.
Eighteen inches of water covered County Road 52 north of Rothsay on Sunday night, forcing crews to barricade the road. Other roads underwater included County Road 188 north of Rothsay and County Road 171 southwest of Rothsay.
Workers used a backhoe to break up ice in a ditch south of Foxhome. Officials will monitor water as it moves west across the county, especially along Highway 210, Richels said.
"There'll be some huge bodies of water over there in the next couple days," he said.
The county was considering building a clay dike to keep Highway 210 dry about 10 miles east of Breckenridge, he said.
Water also crept onto Highway 34 west of Osage and onto Highway 200, said Dennis Redig, maintenance superintendent for the Minnesota Department of Transportation's Detroit Lakes District.
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Richels said soil samples taken last week found the ground was still frozen at least 30 inches down.
"None of the water is soaking in at all," he said.
He said he measured ice 30 inches thick on the Otter Tail River about two miles east of Breckenridge on Sunday, "which is pretty amazing. I live right there and I've never seen the ice that thick on that river in the past. So I don't know what kind of problems that might cause as that river starts to pick up flow."
Cass County (N.D.) Emergency Management Coordinator Dave Rogness said he anticipates water running over rural roads today or Wednesday.
"People are going to have to be very cautious when they travel, especially at night," he said.
Ewens said such flooding is typical for this time of year, when temperatures are warm enough to melt snow but not to open ditches and culverts.
He recalled a rainstorm in March 2004 that exacerbated overland flooding and devastated parts of Pembina and Walsh counties in northeastern North Dakota, including the city of Grafton.
"I'm not saying we're necessarily looking at a scenario like that," he said. "But it certainly is a real possibility in these types of weather patterns."
